Sep 6 – 10, 2026
Centro Didattico Morgagni
Europe/Rome timezone

Some Stylized Facts of the Conditional Expected Delay (CED)

Not scheduled
20m
Centro Didattico Morgagni

Centro Didattico Morgagni

Viale Morgagni 40, Firenze
Statistical Process Monitoring

Speaker

Sven Knoth (Helmut Schmidt University Hamburg, Germany)

Description

The popular zero-state average run length (ARL) is just the mean of the random run length, which is the core element of a control chart. However, more appropriate measures for evaluating the detection power make use of the conditional expected delay (CED), which is the mean of the detection delay for a given change point position $\tau = 1, 2, \ldots$ under the condition that no false alarm was triggered. Originally, it was only a prerequisite for building sophisticated delay measures. Aiming to optimize the latter, interesting patterns of the CED series were found. While the more theoretical strand of monitoring research struggles with some open optimality problems, did the more applied one not recognize the CED stylized facts so far. This talk tries to close the gap. More importantly, it emphasizes and affirms the importance of an appropriate CED analysis.

Classification Mainly methodology
Keywords ARL, CED, control chart

Primary author

Sven Knoth (Helmut Schmidt University Hamburg, Germany)

Presentation materials

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